A friend sent me one of Professor Jiang’s shorts, claiming the US-Iran war will drag on forever because “this man knows it all.” I watched the full episode where he made a series of bold claims/predictions.
He calls it “predictive history.” To me, it sounds like a scam wrapped in academic jargon. History is not supposed to predict the future. It can’t.
I’m keeping this list of those predictions and I’ll come back in the future (6 months from now) to fact-check these. (Also to exercise my critical thinking.)
✅ Past predictions (made in 2024, claimed to have come true)
- Trump would win the US presidential election in November 2024.
- Trump would start a war against Iran.
- The United States would lose that war, and losing would radically reshape the geopolitical landscape.
highly unlikely but not impossible.
maybe like Afghanistan/Vietnam scenarios.
Even if his two predictions are correct, that doesn’t mean the rest will be too. There was a man who had correctly predicted 13 US election winners but his 14th prediction was wrong. So as the saying goes, “past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.”
Predictions about Trump & US politics
- Trump will get a third term as US president.
Trump could get a third term by having his son Don Jr. run for president, with Trump as vice president, then Don Jr. abdicates.
Trump could get a third term by using emergency war powers to suspend the constitution and delay the 2028 election (like Zelensky in Ukraine).His boldest claim, maybe, totally unconstitutional though.
- There will be a US civil war (Democrats vs. Republicans taking up arms).
- The American Empire will collapse within 5 to 10 years.
What? How? Why? Within 5-10 years? Unlikely af.
Predictions about Iran war & Middle East
- Iran will become a “forever war” for the United States.
- The United States will send ground troops into Iran.
- Iran will survive the invasion.
Not a falsifiable claim. Who does he mean by Iran? The people? The regime? What if Iran turns into a failed state? Can it be considered as “surviving the invasion”?
- The US will be forced to retreat from the Middle East.
- Trump’s initial plan was a decapitation strike (kill the Ayatollah), believing Iran would surrender.
- Iran’s proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis) will continue to fight.
- The US will use ethnic insurgents (Baloch in southeast, Kurds in northwest) as forward operating bases to arm and train them.
Possible. He drew the wrong region for Kurds in the video, though, which I can’t blame really.
- The US will strangle Tehran by attacking power plants, reservoirs, and railways – denying water, electricity, and food.
- Israel is trying to drag out the war to destroy all its major enemies in the Middle East.
- After Iran, Turkey is next.
Next for what? US/Israel invasion? I really doubt it. Turkey is posing no direct threat to the US nor Israel, so why would you invade a country which has one of the strongest armies in NATO if there is no existential threat? Is it likely, though? maybe.
- Once the US leaves the Middle East, Israel will achieve the “Greater Israel Project” (from the Nile to the Euphrates, including parts of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Turkey).
Predictions about Russia, Ukraine & NATO
- NATO and Russia will fight for control of Odessa.
- Russia will take Odessa.
- If Odessa falls, Russia will have achieved all its major strategic objectives in Ukraine.
- Control of Odessa gives Russia control of one‑third of the world’s carbohydrates (grain exports).
- Without Ukrainian and Russian grain, Africa and the Middle East would starve.
- Russia does not want to continue fighting beyond Odessa.
- Russia will enter the war on Iran’s side.
- Russia will provide reinforcement to Iran via the Caspian Sea.
- Russia will put Iran under its nuclear umbrella, negating any US/Israeli tactical nuclear option.
possible. but i doubt Russia will take the risk nuclear engagement for Iran. but on the other hand using any kind of nuclear weapon by US/Israel is very unlikely too.
- China will then be brought into the war on Iran’s side.
- China will use the Belt and Road railway system to reinforce Iran from the east.
- Russia and China will provide unlimited financing to Iran.
- The US will try to topple the Russian government because Russia is the main backer of Iran.
- Once the Americans consolidate bases in Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, etc., they can attack Russia from the south.
Predictions about China & grand bargain
- There will be a “grand bargain” between the United States and China.
- Trump and President Xi will meet three or four times in the coming year (first in mid‑May in Beijing).
- China does not want to replace the US as global superpower (it’s happy for the US to bear the cost of fighting wars).
- China will triangulate between Russia and the US, staying friends with both while they fight each other.
- China will continue buying US treasuries; the US will give China energy resources from the Western Hemisphere and access to the US market.
- China will not be a meaningful part of World War III.
Predictions about East Asia
- East Asia will break out into conflict.
- First flashpoint: Taiwan – Japan will fight to prevent China‑Taiwan unification because Japan depends on the Strait of Malacca for resources.
- Second flashpoint: Strait of Malacca – the US wants to control it; China sees it as key to its economic survival.
- Third flashpoint: North Korea – with the world distracted, North Korea will create havoc.
- North Korea can flatten Seoul with artillery in 20 minutes.
This is actually possible. Seoul is dangerously close to North Korea.
- North Korea will extort South Korea (threaten to destroy Seoul in exchange for bribes).
- The US is cannibalizing its forces in South Korea and Japan to maintain the war in the Middle East (e.g., moving THAAD systems).
Predictions about US national draft
- The United States will institute a national draft.
Starting in December of this year, all males aged 18–24 will be automatically registered for the draft (lottery system).
A law has already been passed to make registration automatic.
The draft is needed because the war in Iran requires ground troops, and many ground troops.
Predictions about AI & surveillance state
- The world will move toward an AI civilian state.
- This will include digital ID and digital currency for everyone.
- Governments will monitor everything you do online and control all financial transactions.
Like they’re not already doing it.
- AI will be used to predict behavior and “guide” people (e.g., prevent buying cigarettes or drugs).
- The system will become more authoritarian as young people stop believing the old “shadows” (mainstream narratives).
Predictions about global conflict & World War III
- The current Iran war can only lead to World War III (80‑90% probability).
- The US wants to control all strategic maritime choke points (Strait of Hormuz, Strait of Malacca, Panama Canal, Greenland, Gibraltar).
- The US will deplete the world’s energy inventory to force everyone to buy American energy.
- Russia will arm its shuttle fleet (1,000 tankers) to evade US blockades.
- China will finance the militarization of Russia’s shuttle fleet.
- The conflict will escalate into naval battles between Russian tankers and US destroyers.
Predictions about refugees & food crisis
- Without fertilizer, the world can sustain at most 2 billion people; the other 6 billion will migrate.
- A global refugee crisis will happen, with millions flooding from Africa, the Middle East, and South America.
- The coming crisis will resemble the Bronze Age collapse (earthquakes, famines, climate crisis, wars, civil wars, revolutions, and sea peoples).
Predictions about US military & strategy
- The US Department of War has a National Defense Strategy (four‑point program) to maintain imperial hegemony:
- Secure the Western Hemisphere (Monroe Doctrine + Trump corollary) – all countries from Greenland to Canada to Mexico to Venezuela belong to the US.
- Re‑imagine alliances – NATO must fight Russia in Ukraine; South Korea and Japan must keep China in check.
- Put China in its place by strangling it economically (using the First Island Chain and Strait of Malacca).
- Rejuvenate US defense manufacturing (Ford and GM may stop making cars to make munitions).
- The Pentagon has already asked Ford and GM to switch to weapons production.
- The US has parked one‑third of its naval assets in the Caribbean to enforce the Western Hemisphere doctrine.
- The US has signed military cooperation agreements with Indonesia (Malacca) and Morocco (Gibraltar).
Predictions about Russia’s grand strategy
- Russia’s grand strategy is the “Third Rome” – uniting the Christian world under Moscow.
- Russia’s main philosopher is Aleksandr Dugin (1997 book Foundations of Geopolitics).
- Russia’s strengths: size, Orthodox religion, artillery, and soldiers who are not afraid to die.
- Russia’s weakness: if Putin dies, a succession crisis may break the system.
Predictions about Iran’s grand strategy
- Iran’s grand strategy: unite the Muslim world under its leadership.
- Iran’s attack vectors: proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis), asymmetrical warfare (drones/missiles), and geography (mountain fortress).
- Iran’s political leadership wants to wait out Trump (hope Democrats win midterms and impeach him).
- The IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) sees the war as a religious crusade and will not surrender easily.
Predictions about Israel’s grand strategy
- Israel’s grand strategy: the “Greater Israel Project” based on the Bible (God’s promise to Abraham).
- Israel’s attack vectors: Mossad, the Jewish diaspora, and the Bible (Christian Zionists in the US).
- Israel’s weakness: division between Tel Aviv (secular) and Jerusalem (religious).
Claims about financial elite & control of reality
- Private bankers (Bank for International Settlements in Basel) set exchange rates and control the Swift system.
- Wall Street and the City of London are the financiers; the Federal Reserve prints money.
- Multilateral organizations (World Bank, UN, WTO) are pretend controllers to make people believe the system is impartial.
- Media, Hollywood, and education systems are the “prisoners who became leaders” – they help people understand the shadows on the wall.
- The financial elite ultimately control everyone (including independent media) because they control the creation of money.
- AI and tech billionaires (Peter Thiel, Larry Ellison, Sam Altman, etc.) want to create “Operation Stargate” to control people’s imagination.
- The current global conflict is also a war between bankers and tech bros.
Predictions about the nature of reality & cycles
- Everything is a hallucination (confirmed by neuroscientists).
Nonsense. Pseudoscience at best.
- Reality is energy/vibrations (hermetic philosophy).
Not falsifiable.
- We are all fractals of God; “as above, so below”.
If a religious statement, maybe, but not a FACT.
- Empires last about 200 years; the US is in its twilight.
Not correct. Even if it’s an average, there are exceptions, like the Ottoman Empire lasted more than 6 centuries. The UK is another counterexample.
- The collapse of the American empire will happen in the next 5–10 years.
Again, highly unlikely.
🧠 Other notable claims (not strictly predictions, but asserted as facts)
- The US dollar petrodollar system is a Ponzi scheme.
- In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine; the US responded by sanctioning Russia, removing it from SWIFT, and freezing $200+ billion in Russian assets.
- That response broke the political neutrality of the US dollar, threatening its status as global reserve currency.
- Russia, China, and Iran are building a Eurasian railway system that negates US sea power.
- They use gold as their medium of exchange, while the US uses fiat dollars.
- The BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) is an alternative.
- China gets 50–60% of its energy from the Middle East.
- Europe lost Russian energy due to sanctions and now relies on the Middle East, which is now disrupted.
- Japan and South Korea also rely on the Middle East for energy.
- Trump took over Venezuela (world’s largest oil reserves) and is threatening Canada, Greenland, Mexico, Colombia.
- Trump wants to control the entire Western Hemisphere so the world has to beg him for energy.
- The US military is corrupt and insular, trying to generate congressional funding for the military‑industrial complex.
- On January 3rd (of the current year), Delta Force went into Venezuela, kidnapped Maduro, and the Venezuelan government surrendered. Trump wanted to replay that in Iran.
- The US has already seized Russian shadow fleet tankers in the Caribbean (January 7, 2026 – Operation Southern Spear).
- US forces have seized tankers linked to Venezuela, Iran, and Hezbollah.
- Putin personally received Iran’s prime minister and said Russia admires Iran’s determination against the Americans – a sign Russia has entered the chat.
- Iran’s prime minister Arachi recently visited Putin in Moscow.
- If the Russians get involved, they bring the Chinese, provide financing, and put Iran under a nuclear umbrella.
- The US is already signing military agreements with Morocco (Gibraltar) and Indonesia (Malacca).
- The US has bases in Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan.
- The Israeli Mossad is the most powerful intelligence agency in the world.
- Christian Zionists in the US (Christians, not Jews) support the Greater Israel Project for religious reasons.
- The Gaza conflict is partly supported by Christian Zionists.
- North Korea has sent thousands of soldiers to fight for Russia in Ukraine; they fight to the death because their families will be killed if they are captured.